NORRISTOWN, Pa. (WLVT) — All eyes are on the presidential race, but the balance of the Pennsylvania legislature is also at stake.
For years, Republicans have dominated Pennsylvania’s House and Senate. But now, Democrats see a path to take control of both chambers. That’s if just nine Republican seats in the House and four in the Senate flip blue.
Terry Madonna, pollster at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, says flipping GOP seats won’t be easy.
"The hope for the Democrats is that they will pick up seats in the Philadelphia suburbs and the Lehigh Valley," Madonna told PBS39. "The Democrats are enthusiastic. The Republicans, on the other hand, are saying, sure, we’ll lose some, but we’re not going to lose nine."
Madonna anticipates fewer split tickets than previous elections, which he says will work to the Democrats' advantage.
"We’re probably going to have more straight party votes, because of the deeply ingrained polarization," he said.
Madonna says the Lehigh Valley could see some party flips this election. In the 138th District, which covers parts of Northampton County, Republican Ann Flood and Democrat Tara Zrinski are vying for the seat Republican Marcia Hahn leaves behind. In the 131st district, which covers parts of Lehigh, Northampton and Montgomery counties, Democrat Kevin Branco is going up against Republican Milou Mackenzie to fill Republican Justin Simmons’ vacant seat.
"As we know, Trump carried Northampton County [last election]," said Madonna. "Montgomery County is more Democratic than any of the four Philadelphia suburbs. If we go to 2018, the Democrats won three of the four seats in the Philadelphia suburbs, the 4th, 5th and 6th Congressional Districts. They also won one in the Lehigh Valley, with Susan Wild in the 7th Congressional District. In many places around the state, the suburbs around a city are trending Democratic."
Another seat that could flip is that of Todd Stephens, a relatively young, moderate Republican, who represents Montgomery County’s 151st district. He’s held his seat since 2011 and is being challenged by Democrat Jonathan Kassa. Two years ago, Stephens won by fewer than 1,000 votes.
"Remember, the Democrats are focusing on suburban seats. So that’s a classic example of a seat that the Democrats believe they can pick up," said Madonna.
The party that comes out on top in next week’s election will have significant sway over how the state’s legislative and congressional districts are redrawn in 2021 — a process that occurs every 10 years.